New listings: Using the San Francisco & San Jose Metro Areas (7 counties) as a large sample size for the greater Bay Area, the number of new listings in February rose 27.5% year over year and was the highest month-of-February count since the end of the pandemic boom. The “mortgage lock-in effect” appears to be quickly weakening. (Nationally, the percentage year-over-year increase was 4% – the spring market begins earlier in the Bay Area. The percentage in Sacramento County was +15%.)

Active/Coming-Soon listings on 3/1/25:  For the greater Bay Area, the count of listings on the market in MLS was up approximately 42% year over year, and was by far the highest March 1st count in at least 4 years. Note that this will not include hundreds of Compass Exclusives – or other brokers’ exclusive off-MLS listings – that might have added to the count in previous years. Looking at individual markets, San Francisco’s 3/1/25 count of active/coming-soon was barely higher year over year and relatively unchanged over the past 4 years. Tri-Valley & South Alameda County’s count was 89% higher year over year; Lamorinda (a small market) was 84% higher; Santa Cruz County was +70%; both Napa & Sonoma, +64%; North Contra Costa, +53%; Marin, +49%; Santa Clara County, +48%; Diablo Valley, +41%; Inner East Bay, +36%; San Mateo, +31%; Monterey County, +26%; Stanford Circle, +13%.

If the number of active/c-s listings was particularly low last year – for example, in the Tri-Valley & South Alameda County market – then percentage rebounds will often be outsized.

Price reductions (using the SF and San Jose metro areas as large Bay Area samples):  The early months of the year are typically not big months for price reductions, but the number of price reductions in February 2025 was 55% higher than in February 2024, and was the highest month-of-February count in at least 6 years. We will see how this trend develops in coming months. (Nationally, price reductions were up 30% year over year. In Sacramento County, reductions rose 83%.)

Of course, if inventory increases, it will be one factor in the increase in price reductions.