The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at its 7/31 meeting, but based on comments made by the Fed chief and recent economic data, most analysts believe a September rate cut is (finally) coming. The next inflation report comes out on August 14th.

Interest rates have been falling. The weekly average rate (1st chart) is a few steps behind the daily average rate (2nd chart). Note that the providers of these averages use different methodologies as to exactly what types of mortgage rates they are measuring – but the trends are always similar.

Stock markets have been having a rockier time of it since mid-July, though still far up since the year began. Of course, short-term volatility is not uncommon.

Consumer confidence has not yet really rebounded, remaining flat over the past 3 months, though up from the severe lows of 2022-2023.

NAR issued their pending-sale report for June: Pending sales were up slightly from May, but down almost 8% from June 2023. This is consistent with other indicators that some cooling is occurring in the national market. A recent quote from the NAR chief economist: “We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun on national dynamics. “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers [with more contingencies, and] inventory is definitively rising.”